Czasopismo | PRZEGLĄD ELEKTROTECHNICZNY | Rocznik 2024 - zeszyt 2

Wpływ czynników zewnętrznych na predykcję zużycia energii elektrycznej w budynku biurowym z panelami fotowoltaicznymi

Impact of external factors on electricity consumption prediction in office building with photovoltaic supply

10.15199/48.2024.02.46

nr katalogowy: 147364
10.15199/48.2024.02.46

Streszczenie

Planowanie zużycia energii elektrycznej ze względu na pojawiające się niespodziewanie przerwy w dostawie staje istotnym aspektem zarządzania utrzymania budynków. Analiza szeregów czasowych pozwala na predykowanie zużycia energii elektrycznej w kolejnych latach na podstawie danych historycznych. Celem badania jest weryfikacja wpływu czynników zewnętrznych na predykcję ilości zużycia energii elektrycznej. W badaniach zostały wykorzystane metody analizy szeregów czasowych: model naiwny z sezonowością, regresji liniowej oraz Facebook Prophet. Wyniki pokazują, że zaproponowane modele w zadawalający sposób są w stanie prognozować zapotrzebowanie na energię

Abstract

Planning for electricity consumption due to power outages occurring unexpectedly is becoming an important aspect of building maintenance management. Time series analysis makes it possible to predict electricity consumption in future years based on historical data. The purpose of the study is to verify the influence of external factors on the prediction of the amount of electricity consumption. The study used time series analysis methods: naive model with seasonality, linear regression and Facebook Prophet. The results show that the proposed models are able to predict energy demand satisfactorily

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Keywords

Bibliografia

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