Czasopismo | PRZEGLĄD ELEKTROTECHNICZNY | Rocznik 2017 - zeszyt 4

Methods of weather variables introduction into short-term electric load forecasting models - a review

10.15199/48.2017.04.18

Marcin JANICKI

nr katalogowy: 104932
10.15199/48.2017.04.18

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is a problem of noticeable significance for operation of power systems. Wide range of methodologies for STLF is given in the literature - univariate models as well as multivariate ones (mostly extended with weather variables). This paper is an attempt to categorize various approaches of introducing exogenous variables into models. Different classifications of this aspect are created and described in an effort to demonstrate the problem from various perspectives. Finally, the advantages and disadvantages of reviewed solutions are discussed. Streszczenie. Krótkoterminowe prognozowanie obciążeń jest istotnym elementem działania systemów elektroenergetycznych. W literaturze opisane zostało szerokie spektrum metod - modele zarówno jedno- jak i wielowymiarowe (najczęściej używające zmiennych pogodowych). W pracy podjęto próbę przeglądu metod prognozowania pod kątem sposobu w jaki korzystają one ze zmiennych egzogenicznych. Przedstawiono klasyfikacje dla tych metod opisujące problem z różnych perspektyw. (Przegląd metod uwzględniania zmiennych pogodowych w modelach prognozowania krótkoterminowego). Keywords: short-term load forecasting, exogenous variables, weather factors, temperature. Słowa kluczowe: krótkoterminowe prognozowanie obciążeń, zmienne egzogeniczne, czynniki pogodowe, temperatura. Introduction Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is an forecasting horizon defined as a range from one hour to one week ahead [1, 2]. Accessibility of quality forecasts of relatively short time horizon is important point of interest for several parties participating in deregulated energy markets. STLF is considered meaningful in spinning reserve allocation, unit commitment and generation dispatch. In addition, it is used by managers for forecasting and planning financial and economic aspects of operation [2, 3]. A large number of methods have been proposed for STLF problem. One of the most commonly proposed classific[...]

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