Czasopismo | HUTNIK - WIADOMOŚCI HUTNICZE | Rocznik 2017 - zeszyt 2

Prognostic autoregressive modeling of steel production in Poland

10.15199/24.2017.2.3

nr katalogowy: 103977
10.15199/24.2017.2.3

The publication presents the prognostic modeling of steel production in Poland by 2020. Based on the general framework predicting, was made an attempt to adjust the model to empirical data, which were the size of steel production in Poland in the years 1990-2015. Applied prediction based on the autoregressive model AR (1, 3, 4) and (1, 4). Prediction exante (for the years 2016 to 2020) indicates that over the next 5 years (un􀀐 til 2020) should be an decrease in steel production by approx. 200-300 thousand tons according to steel production in 2015.Introduction. Metallurgical market in Poland, in recent decades, has undergone a radical transformation. From sub􀀐 sidized state-owned enterprises after operating at their own risk private companies. Privatized state-owned enterprises as part of rehabilitation programs adapted each business area to market economy conditions. One of these areas was the volume of production [2]. In this publication, based on changes in the volume of steel production in Poland in the years 1990-2015 an attempt was made to predict changes for the next 5 years. General prognostic assumptions. The construction of predictions for further periods (the prediction ex-ante), had a recurring nature and consisted in the use of the cal􀀐 culations of prognosis from previous periods. The basis for predicting was the size of steel production in Poland [M mt]. Statistical data were obtained from the publication of the Central Statistical Office and Polish Steel Association in Katowice. Time scope of data covered the years 1990-2015. For the beginning of the analysis was used 1990 year. In 1990 began the process of building the foundations of a market economy. The processes of change (radical chan􀀐 ge) covered all sectors of the economy. Privatization has al􀀐 lowed an increase of microeconomic efficiency. Companies joined the [...]

Bibliografia

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[2] Gajdzik Bożena. 2013. "The road of Polish steelworks to􀀐 wards market success - changes after restructuring process" Metalurgija 3 (52) : 421-424.
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[6] Piechociński Janusz. Steel consumption in Poland incerase to 20 M mt until 2020 (in Polish): http://hutnictwo.wnp. pl/piechocinski-zuzycie-stali-w-polsce-wzrosnie-do-20-mln-tonw- 2020-r,253634_1_0_1.html
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[10] UE, Bruksela, 11.06. 2013. European steel industry - good future: http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-13-523_pl.htm; http://www.salesnews.pl/ Article.aspx?id=1303
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