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Application of bayesian networks for estimation of individual psychological characteristics DOI:10.15199/48.2019.05.23

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In this article we discuss applications of Bayesian network methods for solving typical and highly demanding tasks in psychology. We compute overall estimates of the psychological personality traits, based on given answers on offered psychological tests, as well as a comprehensive study of the social status of the individual, their religious beliefs, educational level, intellectual capabilities, the influence of a particular social environment, etc. We believe that the most optimal mathematical model for solving this problem is a graphical probabilistic model with strongly expressed cause-effect relations. Therefore, we chose the Bayesian network as our model. Advantages of the Bayesian network are as follows: 1) The Bayesian network reflects the causal-effect relationship very well. 2) The mathematical apparatus of Bayesian networks is well developed and thus, there are many software implementations of the Bayesian network methods available. Bayesian framework is very popular in various kinds of applications: parameter identification, Bayesian update, uncertainty quantification, inverse problems [1], and classification. Bayesian network is a graphical probabilistic model that represents a set of random variables and their conditional dependencies via a directed acyclic graph [2], [3], [4]. For example, a Bayesian network could represent the probabilistic connections between overall economical situations, average salaries and nationalism in society. It can give recommendations to local governments of which steps to undertake to decrease the level of political tensions. Other promising applications are in Human Resource (HR) departments and in marriage agencies. Bayesian networks, by analyzing psychological properties of each individual, and sociological connections between individuals, may help to select a better group for a certain task, prevent possible conflicts and increase performance. In this work we will apply Ba[...]

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